Fall 2014

Cribb Greene Publisher Confidence Survey

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Responses to the Fall 2014 Publisher Confidence Survey indicate publishers continue to be encouraged about the short-term future, but are still wary in some areas.  One hundred forty-four newspaper publishers/executives completed the 2014 survey with 55 percent of respondents owning daily and weekly newspapers and 45 percent owning primarily weekly publications.

Significant is that 50.6 percent of publishers think that their local economy is improving which is up from 40 percent in 2013 – but interestingly, the publishers who think their local economy is declining also went up from 6 percent to 11.1 percent.  Publishers who feel their profit will be up next year declined from 56 percent in 2013 to 51 percent this year with 41.9 percent of publishers deciding their profits will be about the same as the previous year.

Publishers were optimistic that ad revenues will increase next year, with 52 percent saying they will be up compared to 47 percent saying the same in 2013.  Publishers who would buy a newspaper versus those who would not is virtually unchanged from 2013, with 58.4 percent saying they would buy and 41.5 percent saying they would not.

Our "litmus test" question – "Would you recommend the newspaper business as a career for your children?" – shifted some who said "yes" last year to the "maybe" category, for a total "yes" or "maybe" in 2014 of 73.2 percent compared to 72 percent in 2013.  The people who would not recommend newspapers as a career was unchanged at 28 percent.  A total of 58.4 percent of respondents said they would consider purchasing a newspaper currently and 72 percent said bank financing on reasonable terms is available to them.

Please also see the "Survey Respondent Comments" at the end of this story.  Several noted they don't feel working in the newspaper industry is "fun" anymore.  Our favorite "poignant" response is this one:  "Our country more than ever needs a committed and profitable newspaper industry. It's up to us to determine the best business model to do that and time is wasting."

The overall results of the Fall 2014 Publisher Confidence Survey seem to indicate that publishers continue to be optimistic – but cautious – about future performance and the newspaper industry in general.  We would like to thank all of you who took time to respond to the survey.

Here are the results:

Cribb Greene Publisher Confidence Survey Fall 2014

1.  Is your newspaper company primarily daily frequency (5 days or more each week), non-daily or a combination?

Daily: 32.6%; Non-daily: 45.1%; Combination: 22.2%

2.  Do you think the local economy(s) in your publication market(s) is/are improving, declining or about the same as last year?

Improving: 50.6%; About the same: 38.1%; Declining: 11.1%

3.  Next year (2015) do you believe that your bottom line will be up, down or about the same as this year?

Up: 51%; About the same: 41.9%; Down: 6.9%

4.  As the economy improves, do you think your bottom line will be better than it was before the downturn, worse or about the same?

Better: 39.4%; About the same: 29.5%; Worse: 30.9%

5.  Next year (2015) do you believe your total advertising revenues will be up, down or about the same as this year?

Up: 52%; About the same: 34%; Down: 13.8%

6.  If you currently print in-house, would you consider outsourcing your printing and eliminating your press?

Yes: 43.4%; No: 56.5%

7.  Would you consider purchasing a newspaper currently?

Yes: 58.4%; No: 41.5%

8.  If you would consider purchasing a newspaper, for funding would you primarily use:

Bank financing: 30.1%

Seller financing: 39.6%

Cash reserves: 23.2%

Other sources: 6.8%

9.  In your opinion is bank financing on "reasonable" terms available to you?

Yes: 72%; No: 27.9%

10.  Would you recommend the newspaper business as a career for your children?

Yes: 35.6%; No: 28.6%; Maybe: 35.6%

Survey respondent comments:

  • "Our country more than ever needs a committed and profitable newspaper industry. It's up to us to determine the best business model to do that and time is wasting."
  • "I feel very confident that we have a bright future with our community newspaper group as long as we continue to elevate our content that is relevant to our readers in their perspective markets. Selling as a multi-media platform and continuing to educate our overall team's knowledge of the digital world and how to intertwine this into our existing print world. How would the other media get their daily news for their broadcasts without the newspaper as their key source of information?"
  • "I would want to see what my son's interests are before he made a choice to get into the business."
  • "If they were fully prepared to be very entrepreneurial, work hard and not expect to see the kind of returns we did prior to 10 years ago."
  • "I am near retirement age and am more interested in selling a newspaper than buying one."
  • "In our market, we have seen a number of businesses close in the past year. Advertisers – on average – seem to be running smaller ads less frequently. Free-standing inserts is the one area that we are showing an increase in revenue. We had our local grocery store move from a weekly full-page ad to a free-standing insert, and we are picking up new insert advertisers."
  • "We still have a viable business and we're essential to our communities. It's just the adjustment we're going through to the new reality – 'transition' is a painful experience!"
  • "Both of my kids have already established careers in different fields. We're a small company: 1 weekly, 1 monthly, 1 quarterly, a summer guide, a wedding guide and various maps. All free or controlled circulation. It's a lot of work – I think you could make more money in other pursuits. Having said that, we perform a valuable service and I can sleep well at night."
  • "Business is mostly flat in our key U.S. markets, down slightly in our Canadian markets due to a weaker than expected local economy."
  • "My children are 8 and 9, so a lot depends on how business goes in the next decade."
  • "Depends on which child! Some it would be good for and others would never make it. It has been good to me!"
  • "Still find it rewarding but it's no longer fun. Despite the fact I think this business will be around for a long time yet, low pay and lack of pay increases mean I would not recommend working in this industry to anyone."
  • "If one defines the newspaper business as the business of delivering news and information to audiences, yes.  If one defines the newspaper business confined to the provision of information via ink on paper, no."
  • "Recommendation limited to community non-daily community newspapers."
  • "Not daily newspaper only. Would recommend a company with a high percentage of revenue from niche print products and digital."
  • "The future business model for local news is still unclear."
  • "Would love to recommend the newspaper business ... But not in the State of Connecticut, we are taxed to death here. You take one foot forward and the next day two backwards."
  • "Only with a newspaper that has a big focus on digital and social media."
  • "Too volatile at this stage. It's not fun anymore."
  • "Good times ahead for those who think hard and work hard."
  • "All my children are in the business. All purchased a paper this year."
  • "If a person is passionate about being a part of the media, it's an important role. But with the media's current state of flux, it currently offers mostly roles for impassioned pioneers, adventurers and those with a learning-mode, start-up mentality."
  • "We have a small staff that has seen the unexpected departure of longtime key employees in the past year, but we have attracted new talent with years of experience who were laid off or left larger papers and have brought fresh ideas and energy that will improve our bottom line – and the new people seem happy to be away from the corporate rat race."

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Cribb Greene, Publisher Confidence Survey
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